- Date & Location: Saturday, December 5 @ UFC Apex in Las Vegas
- Odds: Jack Hermansson (+105) vs. Marvin Vettori (-135) via Bovada
- Prediction: Hermansson
Jack Hermansson went on an incredible run between May 2018 and April 2019. During that time he went 4-0 with three stoppage victories. Those wins included a submission over former two-division World Series of Fighting champion David Branch and a decision win over Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza in what was Hermansson’s first main event matchup. The win over Souza had Hermansson being talked about as a potential middleweight title contender. However, a September 2019 TKO loss to Jared Cannonier set back Hermansson. The Swedish-Norwegian fighter bounced back in July with a submission win over former 185-pound title challenger Kelvin Gastelum.
Marvin Vettori steps in to replace Kevin Holland in this matchup after Holland tested positive for COVID-19. Vettori is on a three-fight winning streak. His most recent victory was a June 2020 submission win over Karl Roberson.
Hermansson is the No. 4 ranked fighter in the official UFC middleweight rankings. Vettori checks in at No. 13.
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HERMANSSON vs. VETORRI ODDS
|Fighter||Odds (via MyBookie)|
HERMANSSON vs. VETORRI PREDICTION & PICK
Hermansson is a gifted all-around fighter, but his bread and butter is his groundwork. With that being said, his stand up striking skills cannot be overlooked. Hermansson uses awkward approaches and angles to deliver his strikes. He also mixes his techniques well, never giving his opponent a chance to figure out what’s coming next.
When Hermansson senses his opponent slowing, he ramps up his offense and that’s when he goes for takedowns. Once the fight is on the mat, he can finish with ground strikes or go for submissions.
Vettori is also a solid all-around fighter with good ground skills, but never having fought for five rounds works against him. Vettori’s level of competition has also been below that of Hermansson.
The odds on this fight are confusing as I feel Hermansson should be the favorite.
BETTING VALUE WITH HERMANSSON
Hermansson is the more skilled and experienced of these two. He has also fought better competition. I also think Hermansson will be more prepared for this fight since he was scheduled to fight on this card and Vettori had been linked to the December 12 UFC event.
The most sensible bet on Hermansson is for him to win, a stoppage victory will pay better, but not much better. Vettori’s skill on the ground is another reason that picking Hermansson to win only makes more sense. Another thing to consider is that all of Vettori’s losses have come via decision.
WHO HAS THE EDGE?
With his experience and skills, I think Hermansson has the edge in all aspects of this fight. Vettori is a good opponent for Hermansson, but I don’t think he is ready for this level of competition just yet.
FIGHT STATS: HERMANSSON vs. VETORRI
|Jack Hermansson||Category||Marvin Vettori|
|5.08||Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute||4.33|
|2.52||Significant Strikes Absorbed Per Minute||2.76|
|2.19||Takedown Average Per 15 Minutes||1.67|
|0.9||Submission Average Per 15 Minutes||0.9|
WHAT’S AT STAKE
UFC middleweight champion Israel Adesanya is expected to move up to light heavyweight to challenge Jan Blachowicz for the 205-pound crown. If that bout doesn’t happen, former middleweight champion Robert Whittaker is the most likely challenger for Adesanya in the 185-pound division. Because of that, Hermansson is likely at least one more fight away from a title shot if he wins on Saturday, while Vettori will probably need two more wins for his shot at UFC gold.