UFC Vegas 19: Blaydes vs. Lewis Betting Odds & Picks

  • Date & Location: Saturday February 20 @ UFC Apex in Las Vegas
  • Odds: Curtis Blaydes (-370) vs. Derrick Lewis (+280) via Bovada
  • Prediction: Blaydes via KO/TKO

On Saturday, February 20, two UFC heavyweights who are both on winning streaks meet in the main event of a UFC Fight Night event. In that contest, Curtis Blaydes, who is the No. 2 ranked fighter in the official UFC heavyweight rankings, faces the No. 4 ranked Derrick Lewis.

Blaydes is on a four-fight winning streak. Overall, his UFC record is 9-2-0-1. The only fighter Blaydes has lost to in his career is No. 1 ranked Francis Ngannou. Ngannou defeated Blaydes by TKO in April 2016. He scored a second TKO win over Blaydes in November 2018.

Lewis has won his past three contests. His two most recent setbacks came in 2018 and 2019 when UFC heavyweight champ Daniel Cormier submitted him. Former titleholder Junior dos Santos defeated Lewis via TKO.

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BLAYDES vs. LEWIS ODDS

BLAYDES vs. LEWIS PREDICTION & PICK

Blaydes is one of the best wrestlers in the UFC’s heavyweight division. His game plan is relentless takedowns and pressure from the top once he gets the fight to the mat. He has scored one takedown or more in nine of his UFC fights. In his most recent outing, Blaydes defeated Alexander Volkov in a five-round contest. Blaydes attempted 25 takedowns during that contest and landed a UFC heavyweight record on 14 takedowns in a single fight. Blaydes racked up 19:52 of control time during that 25-minute fight.

Lewis’s cardio is getting better, but he’s going to be hard-pressed to keep his wind with Blaydes pursuing so many takedowns. Lewis’s takedown defense is 52 percent, but Daniel Cormier went four-for-four on takedowns when he faced Lewis and Roy Nelson scored on seven of 10 attempts against Lewis. In short, Lewis struggles against better wrestlers.

Lewis is strong and can usually work himself off the mat, but Blaydes is taller, heavier, and more athletic than Lewis and that could be a problem for him.

Prediction: Blaydes at -375 at BetOnline

Curtis BlaydesTO BEAT DERRICK LEWIS
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-375
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BETTING VALUE WITH BLAYDES

Blaydes had not gone five rounds before he faced Volkov. He was gassed by the end of that fight, so I believe Blaydes will come into this fight with a better game plan and improved cardio. Blaydes has also improved his boxing and striking skills. That improvement has made him much more than just a wrestler.

I see Blaydes using his striking to set up his takedowns against the cage and then finishing an exhausted Lewis before the horn sounds to end the fifth round. A submission is possible, but I believe a TKO from ground strikes is more probable for Blaydes.

As for Lewis, his striking is incredibly powerful, so there’s always a chance for him to land a heavy strike to end the night, but Lewis has good takedown defense and he only gets hit, on average, 1.73 times per minute, which ranks him eighth all-time in the UFC heavyweight division.

Pick: Blaydes win by KO/TKO at -356 at SportsBetting.ag.

Curtis BlaydesTO WIN BY KO/TKO
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-356
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WHO HAS THE EDGE?

Blaydes has statistical advantages over Lewis in every major category except for takedown defense and it’s highly unlikely that Lewis will opt to attempt a takedown outside of a desperation move to stop a striking battle on the feet.

Lewis packs more power in his punches, even when his gas tank runs low. So Blaydes needs to be aware of that fact as long as the fight takes place on the feet. Other than that, Blaydes is the more well-rounded and athletic fighter.

FIGHT STATS: BLAYDES vs. LEWIS

Curtis Blaydes Category Derrick Lewis
29 Age 36
14-2-0-1 Record 24-7-0-1
10 Knockout Wins 19
0 Submission Wins 1
4 Decision Wins 4
6’4″ Height 6’3″
265 Weight 260
80″ Reach 79″
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
3.55 Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 2.64
53% Striking Accuracy 50%
1.73 Significant Strikes Absorbed Per Minute 2.09
57% Striking Defense 44%
6.98 Takedown Average Per 15 Minutes 0.54
55% Takedown Accuracy 52%
33% Takedown Defense 52%
0.0 Submission Average Per 15 Minutes 0.0

WHAT’S AT STAKE

With UFC heavyweight champion, Stipe Miocic booked to face No. 1 ranked Francis Ngannou in the main event of UFC 260 in March and UFC president Dana White saying the winner of that fight will face former UFC light heavyweight champ Jon Jones, this fight is more or less a placeholder in the rankings.

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Trent Reinsmith

Trent covers UFC and MMA for MTS. He currently covers MMA for MMA Junkie and Forbes. He has also written for Vice, Bloody Elbow, Fight! Magazine, UFC 360, and Narratively among others. He has been involved with MMA since he and some friends threw some money together to purchase the pay-per-view of UFC 1, and the rest is history.